DTN Ag Weather Brief

2022-10-08 13:42:59 By : Ms. Coco Wu

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There is a a ridge across most of North America, a trough due to Ian in the Mid-Atlantic, a small trough in the Northern Plains, and another trough over northern Canada. The Canadian trough will dive southeast and force the other troughs along.

In the 6-10 day period, trough will move through Canada next week, digging into the East by late in the week. The ridge will remain dominant in the West, however.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be above normal in the West and near to below normal in the East. Temperatures should gradually rise for most areas this weekend into next week, but another cold shot will move through with a stronger trough and cold front later next week. Some showers may develop ahead of that front in the southwestern Plains, but the system itself should produce better shower coverage, which is expected across the Corn Belt and could mess with harvest in some areas.

HIGH MON...108 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...19 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CT MONDAY...ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 2.66 INCHES

There is a ridge across most of North America, a trough due to Ian in the Mid-Atlantic, a small trough in the Northern Plains, and another trough over northern Canada. The Canadian trough will dive southeast and force the other troughs along. Another trough will move through Canada next week, digging into the East by late in the week. The ridge will remain dominant in the West, however.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be above normal in the West and near to below normal in the East. Temperatures should gradually rise for most areas this weekend into next week, but another cold shot will move through with a stronger trough and cold front later next week. Some showers may develop ahead of that front in the southwestern Plains, but the system itself should produce better shower coverage, which is expected across the Corn Belt and could mess with harvest in some areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system that has been in the area since late last week will finally push east on Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will sweep through the country. A shot of cold air will come with the front but will be brief. Some disruptions in limited areas are possible because of the recent showers, but conditions continue to be mostly favorable for harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): A weak system in the Northern Plains has produced a few isolated showers in northwestern areas of the region. The system will finally push eastward Tuesday but a cold front will come in behind it, bringing temperatures down significantly. Some showers may develop both with the system and behind the front this week in the southwestern portions of the region. A few more showers may develop there ahead of the next system early next week. While the showers will be welcome, they will not put much of a dent into the ongoing drought, which continues to be limiting for winter wheat planting and establishment.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system out in the Northern Plains will move eastward through the region Tuesday and Wednesday and will be followed by a strong cold front that could mean more widespread frosts and freezes for more of the region for a couple of mornings late this week and weekend. Neither the system or front is expected to produce much rain, so harvest conditions should still be good for most areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Dry conditions are forecast for the next week. Harvest conditions continue to be quite good.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Recent showers have continued to provide good soil moisture for Brazil as planting increases. The daily wet season showers in central Brazil have started up, and another front is forecast to bring showers through the region later this week. Both bode well for continued corn and soybean planting and establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Dryness continues to create unfavorable conditions for developing wheat and corn planting. Scattered showers will move through with a cold front Tuesday and Wednesday, but amounts are expected to be scattered and mostly light. Another cold front will pass through Friday and Saturday with more limited showers for Buenos Aires but likely nowhere else.

Cold conditions follow and a couple of mornings could be frosty across the south. The country is in desperate need for rain but heavier amounts are not on the horizon.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Widespread showers over the weekend were for good winter wheat establishment. The continent will dry out quite a bit this week, allowing for better fieldwork and allowing newly planted seeds to get some sun and warmth. A series of systems will move through this weekend into next week, with chances for more widespread showers again.

BLACK SEA (CORN/SUNFLOWERS/WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have increased soil moisture for most areas of the region. The region will dry out and get warmer later this week into next week, allowing newly planted seeds to get some sunlight and better growth, as well as allow for more harvest to complete.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A strong system is bringing widespread rains to eastern areas over the next couple of days. A stronger push of cold air will follow behind it late this week and into next week. Outside of the colder temperatures, conditions continue to be good for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

West: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures near to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northwest Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (winter wheat/soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday.

Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

Darren Miller can be reached at Darren.Miller@dtn.com

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