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This week, farmers from DTN View From the Cab conducted a large number of divestitures on site.

The front that passed through Argentina and southern Brazil late last week and the weekend cleared a week of good rains and left dryness thereafter. From the far south of Brazil to the east of Argentina, there has been almost no rainfall since then, which shows that we are expecting a La Niña phenomenon.

However, the previous week’s rainfall was good, and soil moisture may be maintained at favorable conditions for spring planting and early growth of corn and soybeans.

But western Argentina ignores this pattern and is quarantined almost every day, because the western part of the country is the driest this spring, where there are sporadic showers. Since November 8, the rainfall in these areas between November 8 and 10 has been 15 to 40 mm (0.60 to 1.57 inches), and rainfall in several locations exceeded 60 mm (2.35 inches). With the suspension of the La Niña phenomenon, this part of the world continued to maintain good rainfall last week, which is very welcome.

This pattern continues to exist in the faster moving storm system. From November 13th to 14th, a powerful small system will bring extensive moderate to localized heavy rainfall in most of Argentina and most of southern Brazil. At the beginning of next week, another system will follow, and models have begun to agree that this system will bring wider showers to Argentina and southern Brazil. After several days of drought in parts of eastern Argentina and southern Brazil, the prospects for the next few days are optimistic about the continued progress and early growth of corn and soybean planting.

However, after the second system is passed, this model seems to return to its La Niña "basic state." The model shows drier conditions, which will last for about a week afterwards. Since the beginning of November, the soil moisture has been good and can maintain the crop for a period of time, but this may only be a short-term benefit, as the La Niña phenomenon is expected to continue throughout the summer and then gradually weaken in the fall.

The La Niña phenomenon usually results in lower precipitation in Argentina and southern Brazil by restricting pop-up showers in the spring and possibly summer months and causing a stronger system to move faster in the area and not allowing the showers to continue.

Earlier this spring, Argentina followed this pattern well. The system is developing rapidly, and we haven't seen much shower activity outside of these systems. The precipitation in southern Brazil is much better than typical because the front is stagnant in the area instead of entering central Brazil.

The soil moisture from earlier this spring has continued well into November, even though the showers have begun to become more isolated and dry for longer. Although sandy soils can discharge a little more than other parts of the area, the soil moisture in this area can be a bit erratic. Due to this fact, the drier stretch usually has a large impact in the area.

La Nina will not give up anytime soon. Its effects are felt throughout the growing season. Although this incident usually raises concerns about corn and soybeans in Argentina and southern Brazil, it is not inevitable.

It rains in time, even if the amount of precipitation is not as much as in normal years, it can still produce good results. A stronger storm system can break those dry areas well. If they occur frequently, the expected negative effects can be limited.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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