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MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat building back into the Northern Plains and spreading eastward again next week, and mixed conditions throughout the rest of the globe are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.
FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EASTERN MIDWEST
Scattered showers moved through the northwestern Midwest Wednesday with areas of strong winds in and around Wisconsin that likely caused some damage. A cold front is the cause and moving across the region Thursday, bringing temperatures down from their oppressive readings from earlier this week. The front will also have scattered showers and potential for severe storms across the east and southwest on Thursday. Heat will build back in over the weekend and next week ahead of the next front, a pattern we will likely see through the end of the month. The combination of occasional brief heat and rounds of showers should allow for good crop growth on the whole, but precipitation is still below normal for most areas and dryness will be increasing under more hit-or-miss showers.
HEAT DOMINATING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
Isolated to scattered showers have gone through Nebraska and Kansas over the last couple of days. A front sitting across the north will bring more showers over the next couple of days, but heat will build back northward Friday through the weekend. Showers will be very isolated or nonexistent elsewhere, with drought likely starting to increase again for those dry areas. Heat and a lack of showers continues across southern areas through the rest of June, though Nebraska and Kansas are more likely to see fronts bring some showers through at times. Still, precipitation is mostly below normal across the region for the rest of the month.
FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST
A trough that will move back into the west this weekend will bring more showers and cooler temperatures again to the Pacific Northwest. Recent rainfall and soil moisture are mostly excellent across the region, favoring wheat, though development has been slower due to cooler temperatures overall.
HEAT RETURNING TO NORTHERN PLAINS
Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northern Plains over the last several days with some areas of moderate to heavy rain. The system causing the rains continues to move through Canada and is still providing strong winds that could cause damage for one more day on Thursday. Temperatures will rise well above normal afterward going into the weekend as a ridge quickly builds into the region. The combination of heat and good soil moisture will favor crop growth. Another system will move through early next week with more scattered showers and some cooler temperatures. The somewhat active pattern next week will mean several days with showers, but they look to be more spread out and disorganized.
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY FOR DELTA
Outside of a spotty shower here or there in the Delta, heat and dryness will be the theme of the rest of June. Areas with ample soil moisture will see good growth, but areas across the south that are drier could see more stress. Eventually, the heat and dryness will likely stress a lot of the region by the end of the month.
SOUTHERN BRAZIL SEEING MORE SHOWERS AND COLD
Another system will move through southern Brazil late this week and weekend with scattered showers. This will keep soil moisture favorable for winter wheat, but corn headed toward maturity could use drier conditions for drying and harvest. Colder temperatures again will fill in this weekend and could produce more frosts. The cold is not favorable for winter wheat growth.
MIXED WEATHER FOR BLACK SEA
Isolated showers continue over Ukraine for the next few days with only some patchy showers in Russia. Temperatures remain mild to warm, favoring crop growth for areas with adequate moisture. Some areas of Russia are a bit drier and will see stress instead. Overall, the region is still in good shape, but could use more showers for summer crops. A system that moves through early next week could provide more widespread showers, but it is brief, and the region could use more.
MORE SHOWERS COMING FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES
Widespread moderate to heavy rain occurred this week in the Canadian Prairies as a system slowly moved through the region. The system has also come with some strong winds that could cause damage to young crops yet on Thursday. Another system will move through this weekend and early next week with more scattered showers. The showers will be good for those drier areas in the southwest as long as flooding does not occur, while eastern areas still need some drier conditions to finish planting. More of this area could go unplanted due to the wetness.
WESTERN, SOUTHERN EUROPE HOT AND DRY
Heat and dryness across western and southern Europe are unfavorable for crop growth, but good for maturing wheat and harvest. The hot and dry conditions continue into the weekend, when a system should bring more organized showers into this part of the continent going through next week. To the east, conditions have been much more favorable with good moisture and less stressful temperatures. It will be drier than it has been, and temperatures will increase this weekend, but this half of the continent is still in good shape, especially with regards to winter grains.
John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com
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