Resist The Urge To Chase Tornadoes Later Today - StarTribune.com

2022-05-29 03:08:28 By : Mr. Ryan Wu

Our first named storms of the 2022 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season has develops. Agatha became a tropical storm early Saturday just south of Mexico.

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, Agatha will reach hurricane status prior to landfall along the southern coast of Mexico on Monday. It should quickly weaken, but heavy rainfall and flooding will be a major concern there.

According to NOAA's NHC, there is a slight chance of tropical development with the remnants of Agatha as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche next week. Stay tuned...

Here's a look at the Memorial Day weather forecast for the Twin Cities. There may be a few lingering T-Showers in the morning, but warm and muggy sunshine returns midday before another round of thunderstorms develops late afternoon and evening. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe with severe watches and warnings possible across parts of the state. Stay tuned...

"High water levels are occurring across the Rainy River Basin in far northern Minnesota and adjacent parts of Ontario. This is a historic flood that has already exceeded the records set in the 2014 flooding, and will likely break the current all-time records. It will take a long time for these levels to decrease once they peak (crest), and those experiencing flooding should be prepared for weeks of high water levels into June. As of May 25, many of the major tributaries upstream (like Basswood River, Vermilion River, Kawishiwi River) have crested and are beginning to drop. However, this will only slow the rise of Namakan/Kabetogama and Rainy Lake - continued rises are still anticipated in the coming days: Namakan Lake and Kabetogama Lake are currently at 1122.0 ft (341.99 m), which is 17.7 inches (45 cm) above the 2014 peak level. A rise of 5 to 7 inches (12-19 cm) is expected between May 25 and June 1 with continued rises into mid June possible. At this rate, Namakan Lake will reach the all-time record high level of 1122.8 ft (342.24 m) set in 1916. Rainy Lake is currently at 1111.7 ft (338.85 m), which is 4 inches (11 cm) above the 2014 peak. A rise of 11 to 13 inches (27-33 cm) is expected between May 25 and June 1, with continued through at least mid June. At this rate, Rainy Lake is expected to break the all-time record high level of 1112.95 ft (339.23 m) set in 1950."

See more from the NWS Duluth HERE:

Another round of strong to severe storms may develop late Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the region. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is an Enhanced Risk across western and southwestern Minnesota, where the risk of large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes is the greatest. Storms will likely being late Sunday afternoon in western and southwestern Minnesota and will continue through the evening and overnight time period as the storms spread northeast through the state.

The weather outlook on Memorial Day Monday looks unsettled once again with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, especially across western Minnesota. Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible.

Sunday will be another unsettled day with lingering showers and storms possible in the morning and another round developing in the late afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will also be a bit warmer side with readings warming into the 70s and 80s. However, folks close to Lake Superior will only warm into the 50s and 60s.

Monday will be another unsettled day with strong to severe storms expected in the afternoon and evening across parts of the state. There could also be areas of heavy rainfall with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s. Monday will likely be the warmest and most humid day of the long holiday weekend.

Here's the weather outlook from AM Sunday to AM Wednesday. Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop late Saturday across parts of the region and will linger into early AM Sunday. Much of the day Sunday will be warm & breezy with another round of strong to severe storms late in the day. Those storms will end AM Monday with yet again another round of strong to severe storms late Monday. The front finally clears the region PM Tuesday with quieter weather in place around midweek.

Here's the extended precipitation outlook through the middle part of next week. Thanks to scattered showers and storms, some locations across the state could see anywhere from 1" to 2" of rain, especially across the northern part of the state.

It has been a pretty wet spring for many locations around regions. Despite a few locations dealing with deficits, most climate reporting stations are running above average precipitation Since March 1st. The Twin Cities is nearly 2" above average and the 22nd wettest start to any spring on record. St. Cloud is the 10th wettest on record. Eau Claire, WI is the 4th wettest. International Falls is at its wettest start to spring on record!

Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 3% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Sunday could start a bit on the unsettled side with spotty showers and storms in the early morning. However, weather conditions will turn sunnier & warm through much of the rest of th eday. In fact, highs will top out near 90F, which will be nearly +15F above average for the end of May.

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Sunday shows temperatures starting in the mid/upper 60s in the morning and warming to near 90F by the afternoon. Showers and storms will be possible early in the morning with more sunshine through much of the rest of the day. Southerly winds will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 30mph.

Temps around the region on Sunday will warm into the 70s and 80s, which will be nearly +5F to +15F above average. Showers and storms will be possible in the morning, especially across far northern Minnesota with another round of strong to severe storms possible in the afternoon and evening.

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running well above average through the holiday weekend. Highs into the 80s and lower 90s will be nearly +10F to +20F above average for late May. We'll be a little closer to average for the last day of the month on Tuesday, but we'll fall below average for the 2nd half of the week after the front pushes through.

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows unsettled weather taking us through the holiday weekend. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Tuesday of next week, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Post front, we'll clear and quiet down for the second half of the week.

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be warmer than average through the long holiday weekend and into early next week with readings warming into the 80s. It turns a little cooler into early June with readings falling to near or even below average levels.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps along the Southern tier of US. Meanwhile, folks along the northern tier of the nation will be cooler than average.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows a better chance of active weather in the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, drier weather will settle in across the Southern US.

My favorite quote from the movie "Twister" was from actress Jami Gertz. "When you used to tell me that you chase tornadoes, deep down I thought it was just a metaphor". Uh huh. I have done my fair share of tornado chasing over the years. Sometimes the tornadoes chased me. I saw 3in Oklahoma and one off my dock here in Minnesota.

Twisters are mercifully rare, but 3 out of 4 tornadoes in the world occur in the U.S., and Minnesota sees its fair share. An estimated 18,000 Americans have died in tornadoes since records were first kept.

There is a significant threat of hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes later today and Monday, especially western Minnesota. The atmosphere is primed; wind shear coupled with an overheated, humid atmosphere (80s today and Memorial Day) results in a few swarms of strong to severe storms later today and Monday PM. Keep an eye on the sky. This is peak season for wild weather, so we shouldn't be too shocked.

Cooler, quieter, more comfortable weather returns later this week.

SUNDAY: Sunny, severe storms later. Winds: S 15-25. High: 85.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Strong storms possible. Winds: S 15-30. Low: 72.

MONDAY: Sticky sun, severe storm potential. Winds: S 15-30. High: 88.

TUESDAY: Windy with showers up north. Winds: W 15-40. Wake-up: 62. High: 69.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, winds ease. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 52. High: 70.

THURSDAY: Comfortable, pop-up PM shower? Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 53. High: 73.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 57. High: 76.

SATURDAY: Few showers, possible thunder. Winds: E 7-12. Wake-up: 55. High: 71.

1998: A devastating line of storms hits east central Minnesota. 100 mph winds rip through Scott and Dakota County. Over 500 homes are damaged in Washington County. 15,000 trees are lost in the Twin Cities metro area, and 500,000 people lose power in Minneapolis.

1985: A tornado hits Lakefield, and the Twin Cities report 67 mph winds.

Average High: 73F (Record: 94F set in 2006, 2018)

Average Low: 55F (Record: 33F set in 1965)

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 18 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 35 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 32 Minutes

See more from Space.com HERE:

The weather outlook on Sunday shows well above average temps returning to the eastern half of the nation with highs in the 80s and 90s for many locations. There could be a few record highs across central Texas with highs warming into the upper 90s and 100s. Cooler conditions will be found in the Western US with a few thunderstorms. There could also be some mountain snow showers across the central and northern Rockies.

Here's the national weather outlook through Monday, which shows unsettled weather moving into the Midwest from the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Looks for several days of severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall across the Midwest.

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the northern tier of the nation and the Central US. There also appears to be some heavy rain across southern Florida and the Bahamas.

Snowfall potential continues across the high elevations in the central and northern Rockies through early next week.

"About 29 percent of the United States' population live in coastline counties – more than 41 million are in Atlantic counties. This high population density poses a critical challenge to sustainable developments in coastal areas. Tidal flats, which make up coastal wetlands, are facing unprecedented challenges because of increased human activities. They are widely recognized as sentinels of coastal environment change. Importantly, they are the guardians for beachfront communities as they can largely mitigate destructive forces from the ocean. Without them, coastal communities are more vulnerable. Currently, there isn't an effective way to identify and quantify the interactions between urban areas and tidal flats, which is essential to preserve the nation's coastal communities. Moreover, existing research is limited to individual cities, which doesn't provide the big picture."

See more from Eurasia Review HERE:

"The month of May could come to an end with a spectacular sky show — or a dud. That's what astronomy experts are saying about a fairly new meteor shower known as Tau Herculids, which is expected to be visible during the late-night hours on Monday, May 30, into the early-morning hours on Tuesday, May 31, 2022. How visible? That's the big question. Experts say this meteor shower is not one of the reliable ones that appears every year during the same general time frame, but it is forecast to come into view from our planet at the tail end of Memorial Day night. And some believe the Tau Herculids shower has the potential to become a rare "meteor storm," potentially producing hundreds of meteors — maybe as many as 1,000 per hour — for a short time."

See more from NJ.com HERE:

"In a unique lunar composite that took ten years to complete, Italian teacher and astrophotographer Marcella Giulia Pace captured all the different colors she observed of a full Moon. Pace teaches at a primary school in Italy but also pursues her passion for astronomy, mountains, and optical illusions. Some of her astrophotography work has been published internationally and recognized in awards, like the Astronomy Photographer of the Year, organized by the Royal Museums Greenwich. Have collected a diverse set of full Moon shots over the past ten years, Pace brought them all together in one striking composite that showcases the many different faces, colors, and even shapes of the Earth's only natural satellite."

See more from Petapixel HERE:

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