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Ithaca, New York — Late November is often a bit like a weather dice. Sometimes we have a powerful blizzard whizzing by, roaring and traveling for days; sometimes we have jacket weather, and the temperature dropped to below zero on Thanksgiving a few years ago.

This year, it can be said to be better than average. Those traveling on Monday night and Tuesday will experience some rain or light rain, but after that, your travel plans should be smooth sailing-at least, from the perspective of Mother Nature. We cannot predict other drivers or insane air passengers.

Tonight will return to the showers, tomorrow night will usher in a round of lake-effect snow showers, the weather is cold. #pawx #nywx pic.twitter.com/7MaPBoiz53

Before the next storm system that will affect Ithaca and Tompkins counties, the sky is already clouded. This is an area of ​​low pressure that passes northward through the Canadian Shield and Hudson Bay. The system will windmill east of Hudson Bay (slightly retrograde westward) because its eastbound passage is stopped due to a large area of ​​east high pressure. The low pressure will slowly turn north to polar latitudes and rise to the high point of the Atlantic Ocean. nearby. In short, it will be close to the longitude of Ithaca and will affect the local weather for several days at the beginning of the week.

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Today’s high is at a low of more than 50 degrees, a few degrees higher than normal. Today is the warm part of the low. Tompkins County is on the southerly path in the southeast quadrant of its counterclockwise circulation. The cold front is entering the area, but there is enough mild air that there will be rain tonight and tomorrow. Most of the rain will occur between 5-9 pm in the afternoon, with some intermittent showers before and after; this will be mild, and rainfall is usually less than one-tenth of an inch. The temperature will rise to more than 40 degrees after sunset, and it will rise to more than 30 degrees at sunrise on Monday.

The cold front came in the early hours of Monday morning. As the wind turns to the northwest, Monday will be a cold and windy day with reduced local cloud cover and a high point around 40°F. Those cold northwest winds will be very suitable for using the heat energy of the warm waters of Lake Ontario, and the lake-effect snowmaker will start accordingly.

The angle of the wind makes this more like a Syracuse/Auburn event, so snow bands will form north and east of Ithaca, but if you travel through these areas from Monday night to Tuesday, please give yourself some extra travel time, Because there is likely to be moderately soft, narrow-band snow, which will restrict visibility and make the road smooth. These bands may cover the northeast of Ithaca, but by late Tuesday morning, Tompkins County and surrounding areas will generally not receive more than an inch of snow, otherwise it will be cloudy. The low on Monday night is 20. Much.

There will be a few snow showers at the beginning of Tuesday, which may turn into showers at noon. These gradually disappear as the high-pressure system enters more stable air, and too much lake heat cannot destabilize. It is expected that by late Tuesday afternoon, the mostly cloudy sky will become clearer, but the high point will remain at more than 30 degrees. Tuesday night will be dry, cold and quiet, with partially cloudy skies and lows in the mid-1920s.

We will see a slight southerly wind from the high pressure centered on the Central Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday, which will result in good weather in late November. Most of the time is sunny and the highest temperature is in the 40s. Wednesday night will remain dry and quiet, with only low clouds and lows of over 30 degrees.

For your Thanksgiving feast, the weather actually looks very good for those who might be planning a turkey trot or an after-dinner walk. The wind direction is more to the southwest corner, and the front edge of the next storm system will amplify the wind, causing a southwesterly wind in front of the system. It is cloudy for most of the day, with the highest point in the mid-1950s. Some rain may enter after sunset, although the water in the next system is limited, so there will be very little and sporadic rain overnight. Small showers are planned and the sky will be mostly cloudy on Thursday night. As the cold front moves around midnight, the low point is in the 30s.

Friday will be cooler and the lake effect will rise again northward, but the Ithaca/Tompkins area is generally quiet, with a few early showers and then mostly cloudy skies. The high point will be in the 40s. On Friday night, most of the northern part of Ithaca was cloudy with sporadic rain or snow, and the lowest temperature was more than 20 degrees.

Looking forward to next weekend, the weather will be cold but dry. It is expected to be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday, with the highest temperature in the 30s and the lowest in the 20s.

The medium-term outlook requires cooling to begin in December, as the prevailing jet stream pattern favors the high-pressure ridges and low-pressure troughs in the western and central United States. However, this direction will benefit the dry continental air in most parts of the continental United States (the humid Pacific air in the Pacific Northwest is the main exception), so the precipitation during this period will be close to normal, but it is more likely to be snow. For major coastal storms, the rapid flow trough is a bit too far east, but we need to see what the daily setting looks like when entering December.

Brian Crandall reports on housing and development for Voice of Ithaca. You can contact him at bcrandall@ithacavoice.com. More artworks by Bryan Crandall

Voice of Ithaca is a non-profit online news site serving Ithaca and Tompkins counties. It was launched in June 2014 and is a free and independent news source.

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